2020 NFL Draft: Rookie Prop Bets

2020 NFL Rookie Prop Bets 

Gambling on NFL games in nothing new, but specific proposition bets haven’t been around that long. One of the fastest growing segments of the sports betting industry in the US, prop betting is evolving in Nevada sportsbooks and online as gaming control boards open up to these opportunities. And despite the uncertain outlook for the upcoming season, oddsmakers have wasted no time building the market for the 2020 NFL rookie prop bets.

Prop bets are wager on an individual player or specific event, and they became popular with the Super Bowl. These days, there are hundreds of specific propositions a gambler could put money on, beyond just the Super Bowl’s coin toss. And they’re not limited to Nevada. Online operators in New Jersey, like DraftKings Sportsbook, Pennsylvania and more have followed Vegas’s lead.

According to ESPN, more than $20 billion has been bet with US sportsbooks since the Supreme Court struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992 in 2018. The federal statute, commonly referred to as PASPA, had restricted regulated sports betting to primarily Nevada for 26 years, before being ruled unconstitutional. These days, people can put their money on the line in 18 different states and online.

So here’s a quick look at some of the 2020 NFL Rookie Prop Bets that are available these days.

2020 NFL Rookie Prop Bets 

Joe Burrow Racks Up More Yards Than Any of the 2019 Rookies, But Not More TDs

After posting one of the most successful collegiate seasons of all-time, Joe Burrow became the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Burrow shattered single-season records, won the Heisman and led LSU to the National Championship. He’s now being asked to lead the Cincinnati Bengals back to prominence.

With the release of Andy Dalton, Burrow’s path to the starting spot is clear. So oddsmakers are setting the bar high for his possible production. Fanduel posts Burrow’s over/under for passing yards in 2020 at 3,800. Caesars Sportsbook, according to NBC Sports, has the rookie’s over/under for passing yards at 3,764.5. If Burrow hits the over, he’ll top last year’s top pick, Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, who led all rookies with 3,722 passing yards. 

Another prop bet for Burrow at Fanduel sees his touchdown total over/under at 22.5. New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones threw 24 touchdowns as a rookie last season. And Jones didn’t have the skill position talent that Burrow will have at his disposal. The Bengals sport a Pro Bowl receiver in AJ Green, as well as Tyler Boyd, Auden Tate, Joe Mixon and fellow rookie Tee Higgins.

Rookie quarterbacks don’t always perform to these numbers. Since 2015, only two first round quarterbacks have thrown more than 22 touchdowns (Jones and Baker Mayfield, who threw 27 in 2018). Only one has passed for more than 3,800 yards (Jameis Winston, 4,042 yards in 2015). Mayfield and Murray both came close, eclipsing 3,700 yards.

While 3,800-yards and 22.5 touchdowns seem like lofty goals, Burrow’s collegiate production and weapons could push him to the over. Among first-round QBs since 2015, only Murray, Winston and Carson Wentz started in 16 all games as rookies. The three averaged 3,848.6 passing yards and 19.3 touchdowns in their rookie campaigns.

2020 NFL Rookie Prop Bets 

Tua Tagovailoa Won’t Be Starting in Week 1 for the Dolphins

Another first-round rookie quarterback with considerable hype is Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa. But oddsmakers seem sold on the idea that veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick will be at the helm in Miami to start the season. Although the Dolphins contend that Tagovailoa is healthy and ready to contribute, Vegas seems skeptical.

The fact that Tagovailoa’s dislocated hip ended his 2019 season, coupled with Fitzpatrick’s solid play late in the season, likely means the No. 5 overall selection will begin the season with a clipboard in his hands.

There are serious questions surrounding the amount of playing time Tagovailoa will see, which makes many of his props an uncertain gamble. According to Bovada he has +325 odds to beat out Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen for the starting gig in Week 1.

Tagovailoa’s over/under for passing yards is set at 3,200, while his passing touchdowns total is at 19.

Justin Herbert Won’t Start Week 1, Either

The LA Chargers will take the field in 2020 without Philip Rivers at the helm for the first time since 2004. These days, Tyrod Taylor sits atop the depth chart, but rookie first-round pick Justin Herbert will vie for that spot.

Vegas oddsmakers don’t seem to think so. Bovada has the odds of Herbert starting Week One at +235. The over/under for Herbert’s passing yards sits at 3,400, while his mark for passing touchdowns is 21. The Giants’ Jones beat that last year, and Jacksonville’s Gardner Minshew hit it exactly. Last season, Rivers threw 23 touchdowns for the Chargers.

2020 NFL Rookie Prop Bets 

Chase Young’s Prop Bet

72 defensive linemen have been selected in the first round of the NFL draft since 2010. And defensive line is one positional group where rookies can make an instant impact. Chase Young, the No. 2 overall pick, should do just that.

As a junior at Ohio State, Young registered 21 tackles for loss and a nation-high 16.5 sacks, all in just 12 games. He joins a defensive line in Washington that sports first-round picks from each of the last four drafts (Jonathan Allen, 2017; Da’Ron Payne, 2018; Montez Sweat, 2019). Last season, Redskins defensive linemen piled up 27 sacks, with Matt Ioannidis leading the way (8.5 sacks). Sweat (7.0), Allen (6.0) and Ryan Kerrigan (5.5) all contributed as well.

For Young, that should mean plenty of one-on-one blocking in his path toward opposing quarterbacks. Oddsmakers at DraftKings have set Young’s rookie sack total over/under at 8.5.

The rookie record of 14.5 was set in 1999 by then-Tennessee Titans defensive end Jevon Kearse. Last season, Jacksonville’s Josh Allen led all rookies with 10.5 sacks.

Receiver Prop Bets

Beyond just the top-10 quarterbacks, the 2020 NFL Draft saw a record number of receivers taken early. Among them, the Dallas Cowboys plucked Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb at No. 18 and have given him the famous No. 88 jersey. While he’ll compete with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup for targets, Lamb could have a productive rookie season.

Fanduel set the over/under for Lamb’s receiving yard total at 799.5. His touchdown mark is at 4.5.

Of the other receivers, Denver’s Jerry Jeudy yardage over/under is set at 824.5 and his TD number is 5.5. Raiders’ rookie wideout Henry Ruggs III sees his yardage over/under at 800.5 and his TD mark at 4.5. Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson’s over/unders are 725.5 and 5.5.

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