Now that the first eighteen picks of the 2024 NFL Draft have been set, I wanted to take a second and start to look forward to the upcoming process and start my early projections for several players. I do this every year, the mock draft 0.5 to discuss the first picks that are set and not speculate on the postseason that has yet to be played.
This mock draft, because of the partial list, will not include trades – although the first pick is already up on the trading block. Interested teams will be inquiring to the Chicago Bears about what it’s going to take to move that pick so that they can select the future of their franchise. However, it’s just too early to start projecting trades, and more of the focus on this mock draft is projections.
Vogel’s Mock Draft 0.5 – The Rumors
The Chicago Bears are expected to move the first overall pick
This year, I would expect Washington, New England, and the New York Giants to all be in the hunt for the first overall pick – I would be surprised to see Chicago move beyond the fifth overall pick, especially with the ninth pick in their possession.
A couple of dark horses that could put together a compelling package would be the Tennessee Titans and the Atlanta Falcons. I don’t know exactly what the Titans think of Will Levis, it certainly feels like they will be willing to give him a chance. There are rumors of trading the head coach, Mike Vrable, to New England if they don’t fire him, which is a possibility. Vrable fits the “New England culture” and is still a top-five head coach in the NFL in my opinion.
The Atlanta Falcons could see themselves putting a package of picks together because of their desperate need for a quarterback. They got their answer loud and clear regarding Desmond Ridder – he’s not the future. They will be looking for a quarterback and have some future picks they can surrender.
Either way, don’t expect Chicago to have the first overall pick.
The top quarterback overall is Caleb Williams, but a surprising riser is at #2
I don’t think too many teams will dispute Caleb Williams is the first quarterback in the draft, he’s graded several points higher for me than the other top quarterbacks in the class. His overall skillset is ideal for the NFL, despite there being some unknowns from the scheme he ran under Lincoln Riley (which hasn’t hurt Riley’s quarterbacks previously in the draft).
However, it was assumed that Drake Maye would be the clear-cut QB2, and the gap has closed between him and LSU’s Jayden Daniels.
Daniels isn’t receiving this hype because he won the Heisman trophy – in fact, the award has nothing to do with it. It’s the fact that Daniels has progressed as a passer over his last two seasons under Brian Kelly at LSU. His athletic ability is elite – and athletes at the quarterback position are becoming more of a necessity in the NFL. It’s a premium trait to have on the tool belt.
While not moving up to #1, there are a few teams I’d expect to see try to move up for a quarterback
The Minnesota Vikings, the Denver Broncos, and the Las Vegas Raiders are in the quarterback market – especially with the uncertainty around Kirk Cousins’s future in Minnesota. There are a couple of top-5 spots where they could be looking to move to if a quarterback is still available.
The Arizona Cardinals and the Los Angeles Chargers could both be looking for a trade-down and are going to pray for another position to be drafted in the top three.
Minnesota would be likely to target Drake Maye – he’d be a good fit in Kevin O’Connell’s system.
Las Vegas on the other hand is still up in the air until a head coach is hired – but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them pursue Jaylen Daniels.
Denver is ready to move past Russell Wilson, as that’s become clear at the end of the season. However, it’s unknown if they prefer a veteran quarterback or if they’re going to try to move up. Considering the history of Sean Payton, I’d lean on them looking more for a veteran. After all, he was the head coach when the Saints signed Drew Brees. After Brees, the Saints pursued veterans – like Jameis Winston.
Now, let’s get into Mock Draft 0.5.
Vogel’s NFL Mock Draft 0.5 – The Picks
1. Chicago Bears (From CAR) – EDGE Jared Verse, Florida State
Clearly – don’t expect Jared Verse to be the first overall pick. However, the Chicago Bears just locked in Montez Sweat (who they acquired from the Washington Commanders) and they’re going to need someone on the other side to play off of him. The Bears and Ryan Pace probably aren’t looking at a quarterback. I think they’re okay with the progress that Justin Fields made this offseason, and the work Luke Getsy did as offensive coordinator to find what works for Fields.
If they could add Verse, the Bears’ defensive line could be freaky good. Add Demarcus Walker and Dominique Robinson into a rotation on the ends and that’s a formidable front. Why not acquire a guy like Verse, who looks leaps and bounds ahead as the #1 true down-edge rusher in the draft?
2. Washington Commanders – QB Caleb Williams, USC
I’m making an early prediction – I think Eric Bienemy is the next head coach of the Washington Commanders. If Bienemy gets the role, it’s hard to see Washington pursuing anyone other than Caleb Williams to be the face of the franchise.
I think that the Commanders got their answer regarding Sam Howell as the future of the franchise. It’s a resounding no. I think they will retain Howell to serve more as a spot-starter, but they’re looking for a star. There is no better option from almost any way that you look at it than Caleb Williams.
I’d wager that if someone moves up to #1 and takes Williams, the Commanders would probably take Jayden Daniels.
3. New England Patriots – QB Drake Maye, North Carolina
The Patriots may be moving on from Bill Belichick. It hasn’t officially happened yet, but the growing sense around the league is that he will be gone. So who will replace him?
The top candidate available is Jerod Mayo. The former Patriots linebacker has built himself a reputation worthy of an NFL head coaching opportunity, and all New England beat writers believe that he will be the next head coach in New England. However, if the Patriots can find a way to muster Mike viable from the Tennessee Titans, they will. That, however, may not be as likely.
Either way, the Patriots are looking for someone who understands “the Patriots way,” and both Mayo and Vrable understand that better than most people. They were a part of it and played under that mantra. Maye is the prospect who best fits what New England wants in their quarterback – and he’d probably be a good fit for them.
4. Arizona Cardinals – OT Olu Fashanu, Penn State
In year two under Jonathan Gannon, the theme will be protecting the franchise quarterback, Kyler Murray, who showed promise at the end of the 2023 season while returning from injury.
Kelvin Beachum isn’t getting any younger at left tackle – and the offensive line struggles mightily in 2023. Olu Fashanu makes all of the sense in the world, an athletic left tackle to protect the blindside of the franchise. Fashanu is a stout pass protector and a good run blocker, with strength and quickness to hold up well against a variety of pass rushers.
Vogel’s 2024 NFL Mock Draft 0.5 – 5. Los Angeles Chargers – CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama
I noted in the rumors above that the Chargers may be looking to move this pick – and to that I hold. The roster is pretty darn good, and the brass feels as though it’s been mismanaged. However, one area that the Chargers feel weak is cornerback.
Terrion Arnold just got a glowing endorsement today from The Athletic’s Dan Burglar as CB1 of the draft class – and he fits the type of player that the Chargers typically want on their back end. I think Arnold could fit in well with the Chargers and provide an instant impact and help to the secondary.
6. New York Giants – WR Marvin Harrison Jr, Ohio State
The New York Giants lacked some playmakers in 2023 – on top of competent quarterback play. However, most of the issues had to do with no real playmakers and injuries across a multitude of positions. While Giants fans may be clamoring for offensive line help, the Giants have invested a lot of money and resources in their offensive line over the last few years and will probably wait another year to see how that pays off.
Marvin Harrison Jr is certainly a fun prospect to evaluate, but, to me, he lacks a physical edge. He has some real fun tools, though, and can make big plays with his route-running prowess. With his bloodlines to the league too, he will no doubt be considered a valuable prospect.
7. Tennessee Titans – OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame
The Tennessee Titans offensive line was a house fire in 2023 – they struggled to block anyone. They allowed 64 sacks this season and put their quarterbacks under absolute duress. I think the offensive line, again, will be the focus and it starts with finding a left tackle.
Notre Dame’s Joe Alt fits the billing of a Titans left tackle. A capable run blocker who can protect the blindside of Will Levis (or any other quarterback there for that matter) will help allow the offense to stay on schedule, and Alt is a huge upgrade over anyone who’s there currently.
8. Atlanta Falcons – QB Jayden Daniels, LSU
The Atlanta Falcons and Jayden Daniels would be a match made in heaven. Daniels is a capable quarterback as a passer who can distribute the ball well to a variety of weapons – ones the Falcons already have with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, and a host of complimentary weapons on the team. Add the legs and pure athletic ability Daniels presents, and that Falcons offense gets scary quickly.
The Falcons will be looking to insert themselves into the quarterback hunt, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Daniels is their target. They invested heavily in the future of their defense in 2023, now it’s time to find the quarterback.
9. Chicago Bears – WR Malik Nabers, LSU
The Chicago Bears continue to load up on weapons for Justin Fields (or whoever plays quarterback for the Bears) and Malik Nabers is a great way to go. While he projects best working out of the slot, Nabers can line up across the formation and is a skilled route runner. His timing routes are impeccable, but his run-after-catch ability is impressive.
Nabers would be an excellent complement to DJ Moore and would help open a lot of opportunities across the board for Justin Fields to create big plays.
Vogel’s 2024 NFL Mock Draft 0.5 – 10. New York Jets – WR Keon Coleman, Florida State
In Vogel’s Mock Draft 0.5, the Jets need a wide receiver. Most of the additions that they made to help Aaron Rodgers in 2023 were old and one-year deals. Now it’s time to bring in some real youth and athletic ability for Rodgers to use – who will hopefully be healthy in 2024.
Keon Coleman has a lot of athletic ability and is expected to crush his testing. With his size and skillset, it’s hard to imagine Coleman doing anything other than excelling through the pre-draft process and going early in 2024.
11. Minnesota Vikings – RUSH Dallas Turner, Alabama
The Minnesota Vikings defense was again part of their problems in 2023. While there certainly was marked improvement, the Vikings have to find ways to put pressure on the quarterback. Therefore, it would make sense to add Dallas Turner to the other side of Danielle Hunter, who was their main pass rushing threat in 2023.
For Minnesota, it’s not just about the pass rushing ability that Turner brings, it’s his force and willingness to defend the run. He’s a more complete defender than most people realize right now – it just won’t show on his draft grade (most likely) because he fits a traditional 3-4 outside linebacker. I think the Vikings can find uses for him regardless and unleash him to go after the quarterback.
12. Denver Broncos – TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
Sean Payton loves to collect mismatch playmakers. I mean, look at what he did with Taysom Hill, and the success that the “Mormon Missile” has seen since Payton figured out twenty different positions and places he could play. When you look at a guy like Brock Bowers, who could be considered small by some NFL teams and seem uncertain how to use him, Payton makes a perfect match for Bowers and his unique skillset.
Bowers (6’3″ 230 lbs) isn’t your traditional tight end and probably should project better as a slot wide receiver. Payton will find a million ways to use him and make him a star, so this pick would just make a lot of sense across the board.
13. Las Vegas Raiders – OL Graham Barton, Duke
Graham Barton was one of my favorite studies during the summer leading into 2023, as he started as a left tackle at Duke. Barton looks like he can play any position across the offensive line. The Senior Bowl graded him as a center and invited him to Mobile. Barton very well may be the best athlete in the class on the offensive line.
The Raiders need interior help on their offensive line, and getting someone like Barton would help them tremendously – both in the passing game and the running game.
14. New Orleans Saints – CB Khyree Jackson, Oregon
The New Orleans Saints love length on the back end, and there isn’t a longer prospect at the cornerback position than Khyree Jackson. The transfer from Alabama lit up the game film in 2023 while he was healthy and at 6’2″ and 198 lbs, Jackson looks like a starting prototype cornerback.
Jackson would make a lot of sense for the Saints overall, who aren’t getting younger on their back end.
Vogel’s 2024 NFL Mock Draft 0.5 – 15. Indianapolis Colts – EDGE Chop Robinson, Penn State
The Indianapolis Colts were another team that struggled to get pressure on quarterbacks consistently in 2023. Chop Robinson would help fill the gap.
Robinson is a raw, traits prospect who offers a lot of good ability across the board. I think he probably comes off of the board early and in the first round because of that, and the fact that the edge rusher class isn’t as strong as we’ve ever seen it. Robinson’s raw traits that will be highlighted in the upcoming cycle will push him forward and someone will take a chance on him early.
16. Seattle Seahawks – DT Jer’Zahn Newton, Illinois
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Seattle Seahawks pursued a quarterback, but they’re in a tough position to do it right now while picking at 16. The contract extension awarded to quarterback Geno Smith was heavily front-loaded, so they could either try to move up if someone slips or pursue a veteran in the offseason. Regardless, there isn’t a lot they can do to work on their offense.
Defensively, however, the defensive line is good but could use a playmaker like Jer’Zahn Newton. While Newton doesn’t impress you with a lot of pop in his hands or physical strength, he’s a slippery defender who found his way into the backfield a lot while at Illinois. Newton reminds me a lot of Geno Atkins, a player most NFL teams would gladly take in the first round in a do-over.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars – OT Amarius Mims, Georgia
The Jacksonville Jaguars tied themselves to Cam Robinson, who might benefit from a move inside to guard. Enter Amarius Mims, a strong left tackle prospect in this class.
Mims would be an upgrade to the blindside of Trevor Lawrence, who wasn’t under terrible duress in 2023 but would help ease his mind from the pressure as he continues his career in this offense. Protect the quarterback at all costs, gentlemen.
18. Cincinnati Bengals – OT JC Latham, Alabama
The Cincinnati Bengals seem ready to move on from Jonah Williams, who is set to be a free agent. They’re going to need a right tackle, and there isn’t a better right tackle prospect than JC Latham in the draft. He appears to have all of the makings of playing a decade as a high-level starter with his size, strength, and quick enough feet to hold up despite his size.
The injury to Joe Burrow certainly will have the Bengals franchise a little bit spooked. Latham would be a great pick if he is still sitting there.
That’s going to do it for Vogel’s 2024 NFL Mock Draft 0.5. I will be back with my 1.0 after the Super Bowl – hope you continue to enjoy!
