If you know my story, you know my goal is to produce the best mock draft ever. To my knowledge, Josh Norris of Underdog Fantasy currently holds the record from his 2021 NFL Mock Draft with 16/32 correct picks while getting 27/32 of the first round players correct. That is an absolutely ridiculously high bar, but I’m game.
Yearly, the best mock drafts tend to get around 28/32 of the players selected correct and I think whoever gets the most of these right has the inside track to best mock of the year.
In the top 32 conversation: I think the first 25 players in my mock minus Xavier Worthy are near locks minus to go in the 1st. After that, I want to bet on Laiatu Latu, Chop Robinson, Nate Wiggins, Darius Robinson, Kool-Aid, and Worthy making the top 32. That would leave me with 2 more spots for everyone discussed below.
My top 5 in consideration are Johnny Newton, Ladd McConkey, JPJ, Jordan Morgan and Michael Penix. While I think he is a 1st round talent, I struggle to find a spot for Newton. I’m truly at a coin-flip between the other four for the last two spots. It feels wise to bet against Penix and Nix making it into the first, but the chatter on Penix, specifically to the Raiders, has been difficult to ignore. Zach Frazier and Troy Franklin are next in line for consideration. Edgerrin Cooper feels like a real possibility if someone like Dallas reaches for LB1, same with Payton Wilson, and same concept for Tyler Nubin at safety. I don’t think I can put Ricky Pearsall in the first round, but he is getting so much love as a high 2 that I think it is possible. I think its notable that Mel Kiper put Rosengarten in two different times. Kingsley Suamataia could easily sneak in if there is an early OL run. Marshawn Kneeland is getting a ton of late love. This paragraph has gone long enough that I’m going to take an L if someone else ends up in the first so I’ll mention Keon Coleman, Xavier Legette, Ja’Lynn Polk, Braden Fiske, Patrick Paul, Junior Colson, Mike Sainristil and Ennis Rakestraw as others with >0% chance to go in 1.
Oh and I really try not to do mocks with trades, but it got a little nuts this year. Enjoy.
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Sean Balzer’s Final 2024 NFL Mock Draft
1. Chicago Bears (Via Carolina Panthers) – Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Lock it in. Caleb lands in perhaps the best situation for a #1 overall pick ever.
2. Washington Commanders – Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
The noise around Jayden to Washington has been too strong to ignore at this point, with Adam Schefter leading the “as of right now things point to” charge. I guess I’ll bite, but not with confidence. Daniel Jeremiah speculated that Washington traded Sam Howell to remove any awkwardness associated with drafting his good friend Drake Maye to be his replacement, and I’m definitely not completely counting that possibility out, especially with the weirdness around the “group QB visit” and Daniel’s agent’s tweets. I’ve also heard speculation that they have JJ McCarthy over Drake Maye. GM Adam Peters has played this perfectly for the drama.
3. New England Patriots – Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
I’m not buying talk of the Patriots seriously considering a trade down. They probably explored it, likely with the Giants, hoping to get a future 1 while only dropping a few spots and still getting their preferred QB. At 3, a spot they hope to never earn again, they don’t get cute and they take Maye. If Drake does fall past 3, I think the trade possibilities get very interesting.
4. Arizona Cardinals – Marvin Harrison Jr, WR, Ohio State
For the second consecutive year I’m going to write that I think the Cardinals should, could and maybe will trade down, but not mock it. My read here is that the Cardinals love Marvin Harrison Jr, would only trade down for an overpay and they won’t end up getting a tasty enough offer with only JJ McCarthy left at QB on the board because there is less competition for a trade up for him than there would be for one of the other top QBs. The possibility of Monti Ossenfort again pulling off a trade back to trade up so he can add a 1 while still trading back up and getting Marvin Harrison Jr. or a different top 3 wideout remains high with there being less of a premium on the trade back up cost with all 4 QBs theoretically off the board.
5. Minnesota Vikings (via Los Angeles Chargers) – JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan
I believe the Vikings decide to be aggressive enough to make this move because they not only believe they can compete with more competent than Sam Darnold QB play, but also want to do everything they can to make Justin Jefferson happy enough to sign a long term extension. Jim would certainly get an extra kick out of aiding in his college QBs top-5 selection.
6. New York Giants – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
It is no secret that the Giants are considering a QB in the first round. They are likely to have discussions with the Cardinals and Chargers about the cost to move up, but I think they will simply get outbid and are happy to finally get a stud WR1 for the first time since Odell Beckham. Todd McShay says this is Odunze over Nabers so I’ll go ahead and take that swing. Drake Maye falling past 3 is a wild card.
7. Tennessee Titans – Joe Alt, T, Notre Dame
My first instinct was give the Titans another weapon, but I can’t ignore how horrendous the Titans offensive line is as of now and they just can’t run Will Levis out there without some more protection. If Alt makes it to 7, he is a slam dunk fit for Tennessee. I won’t deny there is a good argument out there that Brian Callahan was there when Cincinnati went WR over OT when deciding between Ja’Marr Chase and Penei Sewell and his father is an elite offensive line coach that could do more with less, but I don’t see a need to force WR to a team with Hopkins and Ridley when this offensive line currently is, in my expert opinion, doodoo.
8. Buffalo Bills (via Atlanta Falcons) – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
The Bills make a huge splash to get their new WR1. Trading up this far is going to hurt, but Allen to Nabers has the potential to be the most lethal duo in the league. My feel is these top 3 WRs probably aren’t going to make it to 9, and certainly not past that.
9. Chicago Bears – Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
I’m down to Odunze, Nabers or Murphy if the Bears don’t trade down. With the projected trade in front of them to grab the last of the top 3 WRs, I’ll go Murphy. He seems likely to go somewhere in this range.
10. New York Jets – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
I want to go offensive line, and I think I would go offensive line if I was GM, but I’m not. I think the Jets are going all-in to try to win a Super Bowl within the next two seasons and they need another weapon to do so. Perhaps they can address the OL later, but it certainly gets harder to do with no second round pick.
11. Los Angeles Chargers (via Minnesota Vikings) – JC Latham, OT, Alabama
I simply do not believe Jim Harbaugh values wide receiver enough to take one at 5. He ran the crap out of the ball at Michigan, he ran the crap out of the ball in San Fran, he ran the crap out of the ball with Andrew Luck at Stanford and everything the Chargers have said and done since he has come on board says they want to run the crap out of the ball in LA. Right or wrong, shouldn’t we listen to them? By moving back to 11 they add significant draft capital get offensive line help at the same time.
12. Denver Broncos – Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
Unless they suddenly decide to offer up Patrick Surtain II they are unlikely to be able to get up high enough for a top 4 QB. I have to think the options are between OL, EDGE and a trade down. With the Falcons passing on Turner for the added draft capital, the Broncos are happy to scoop him up. I just can’t bring myself to put Bo Nix in the first round, but a trade back here is extremely in play.
13. Las Vegas Raiders – Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
I simply don’t believe Michael Penix Jr. is a top half of the first round guy no matter how much QB demand there is. I’m truly 50/50 on OL or CB here, but I’ll go Fashanu to help fortify an offensive line that needs help and may be blocking for a rookie QB.
14. New Orleans Saints – Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington
I had already planned to mock an offensive tackle to the Saints prior to the news that Ryan Ramczyk could potentially miss the entire 2024 season. I think the position is pretty much a lock barring a big move before the draft and the player will just come down to who is still available in the order the Saints prefer between Fashanu, Fautanu, Latham and maybe Fuaga.
15. Indianapolis Colts – Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
Admittedly, I’m just trailing Matt Miller of ESPN here. I do believe Xavier is Worthy of going this high with several reports he is WR4 on some draft boards and the Colts are likely to go WR. There are whispers Brian Thomas Jr. could fall due to a labrum injury and Worthy would give Anthony Richardson, Shane Steichen and the Colts offense a dangerous deep speed element.
16. Philadelphia Eagles (via Seattle Seahawks) – Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
If you aren’t following Jimmy Kempski of Philly Voice for Eagles draft coverage or really all Eagles coverage, you’re doing it wrong. He has correctly predicted the Eagles line of thinking for several years now. Like most, he believes the Eagles will go OL or CB. Unlike myself though, he believes they would select an OT only player and not just someone like Fuaga who can play guard week 1 and become the heir apparent to Lane Johnson at RT. Jimmy makes a compelling point. I’d also never count Howie Roseman out of adding to the defensive line. Shame on me for going against Jimmy, but I’m predicting Howie and John Schneider do business again so the Eagles can jump the CB needy Jaguars and get the top CB on the board.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars – Brian Thomas Jr, WR, LSU
I think this pick comes down to Brian Thomas Jr and a top two CB. With the Eagles jumping Jacksonville for the top CB in my Final 2024 NFL Mock Draft, the Jags attempt to replace Calvin Ridley with Brian Thomas Jr.
18. Cincinnati Bengals –Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
I’m jumping on the late news that Trey Hendrickson has requested a trade out of Cincinnati to mock Verse here. I think the Bengals are a candidate for WR for the same reason, as well as DT Johnny Newton.
19. Los Angeles Rams – Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
The Los Angeles Rams haven’t had a first round pick since 2016, so its rather difficult to look at their history and figure out tendencies unless I just project them trading it away again. Can I just do that? Assuming they actually do pick at 19, NFL Network’s Peter Schrager has convinced me that Sean McVay is going to pick someone on the offensive side of the ball. Xavier Worthy would certainly be intriguing. I think adding Mims to the Rams OL free agency signings turns what was considered a weakness heading into 2023 a real strength heading into 2024.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers – Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
For what feels like the 10th year in a row Pittsburgh needs to upgrade the offensive line, but this time it feels like this pick would finally put the Steelers offensive line in the top 5-10 conversation. I like the fit with Mims here, but with him off the board I’ll go Fuaga in my Final 2024 NFL Mock Draft.
21. Miami Dolphins – Graham Barton, IOL, Duke
I am extremely intrigued by the idea of Mike McDaniel hitting the vape and going full YOLO by taking Xavier Worthy to add to the Miami Dolphin track team and I don’t think its impossible with Tyreek Hill’s age and contract status, but with Worthy gone this offensive line needs help keeping Tua upright and the versatile Barton could be a plug and play addition at multiple positions.
22. Seattle Seahawks (via Philadelphia Eagles) – Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
DeJean’s versatility feels like the perfect chess piece for new HC Mike McDonald’s defense. DeJean’s 30 visit with Seattle reportedly went very well.
23. Los Angeles Chargers (via Minnesota Vikings) – Adonai “AD” Mitchell, WR, Texas
With the added draft capital from the trade back with the Vikings, the Chargers are able to address both the WR position and OL by adding Mitchell and Latham.
24. Dallas Cowboys – Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
I think the Cowboys were likely to address their offensive line needs in the first round even before the departure of Tyron Smith. I think Tyler Smith stays at LG while Guyton has the versatility to play either tackle position. Tackle feels like the more likely position for Dallas, but I wouldn’t rule out a center or linebacker.
25. Green Bay Packers – Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
I’d be lying if I said I expected Mitchell to last this long on Thursday night. I like Kool-Aid’s fit here, but I think Green Bay would be happy to snatch up the MAC’s top prospect if he is still available.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
The Bucs have a major need at edge rusher with the loss of Shaq Barrett and Robinson’s 9.68 RAS will be appealing to GM Jason Licht.
27. Arizona Cardinals – (Via Houston Texans) – Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
One of Brian Lamb’s favorite prospects in the draft is Nate Wiggins. I think he falls a bit farther than he probably should due to a combination of short arms and being under 175lbs, but I find it unlikely a corner with his tape and 4.28 speed falls out of the first round.
28. Atlanta Falcons (Via Buffalo Bills) – Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
The Falcons trade all the way down to 28 and still get a guy they reportedly considered at 8 as the best edge rusher in the class. While I don’t expect him to fall this far, I think it is possible due to obvious medical concerns.
29. Detroit Lions – Darius Robinson, DL ,Missouri
The connection here is with Darius growing up in the Detroit area, the draft being in Detroit and defensive line being a key area of need for the Lions. Perhaps Alim McNeill and DJ Reader make it less likely than before free agency, but I like the idea of adding Robinson’s versatile pass rush skills to make this defensive line a truly fearsome unit. Peter Schrager’s connection of Detroit to Zach Frazier has me very worried and I’m tempted to pull the trigger on a last second switch there if we hear anymore rumors specifically connecting player to team. Otherwise, CB remains in play.
30. Baltimore Ravens – Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
An Alabama player at a position of need originally considered a top 10 worthy pick in the draft falling all the way into Baltimore’s lap at 30? This just feels like their draft day luck.
31. Las Vegas Raiders (Via San Francisco 49ers) – Michael Penix Jr, QB, Washington
Ugh, I feel like I’ve been bullied into this but here we are. It just feels like there is too much QB demand, not enough QB supply and too much smoke to ignore. There certainly could be competition for Penix between this spot and the Raiders 2nd round pick so they jump up and trade with the 49ers who would still be able to acquire offensive line help with a modest trade down. I refuse to even start a similar Bo Nix conversation. If I grow a backbone at the last minute and stand on my own conviction that Penix shouldn’t be a 1st round pick, then I’d go JPJ here for the 9ers.
32. Kansas City Chiefs – Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
Patrick Mahomes has shown that he can win a Super Bowl with very little receiving help. Patrick Mahomes has shown he cannot win a Super Bowl if he has no offensive line.
